Brian Hioeby Brian Hioe
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Photo Credit: Screenshot
A TEXT MESSAGE alert sounded this afternoon in Taiwan shortly after 3 PM, alerting that a rocket had been fired over Taiwan. What ensued, however, was significant confusion between the English and Chinese. The Chinese stated that a “satellite” had been fired over Taiwan by China. By contrast, the English stated that a “missile” had been fired over Taiwan.
Most information that followed suggested that a satellite, rather than a missile had been fired over Taiwan. This is not the only time that a satellite launch over Taiwan took place in recent memory, with this also occurring in December. China’s state-run news agency, Xinhua, has itself reported that the launch this afternoon was for a satellite.
At the same time, there was no text message alert, as usually occurs with earthquakes or other natural disasters, in December on other occasions. This is the first time that there has been a text message alert for a rocket fired over Taiwan.
The ambiguity over whether a satellite or missile was fired is worth noting, with this creating confusion among both Chinese speakers and English speakers.
Notably for example, Premier Chen Chien-jen, who was being questioned in the Legislative Yuan over the disclosure of contracts for purchasing Medigen, Taiwan’s domestically developed vaccine, became aware of the rocket through the text message alert. He then interrupted the proceedings to inform the legislature about what had occurred, referring to this as a “missile” in Mandarin though “missile” was only referred to in the English about the text.
Subsequently, Chen came under fire from KMT legislators who accused the DPP of provoking China. Chen responded that the KMT’s immediate reflex was to criticize the DPP rather than China for threatening Taiwan.
The confusion between “missile” and “satellite” raises questions about Taiwan’s communication strategy in the event of a sudden attack by China. Part of the confusion may originate in that satellites are launched through rockets, which are technically not very far off from missiles. It is possible–and would not be surprising–if part of the issue is that the confusion originates from poor translation or poor understanding of the distinctions between the terms in English.
Ministry of National Defense headquarters. Photo credit:
Shortly after 4 PM, the Ministry of National Defense apologized for the confusion, stating that the English for the text message had not been updated.
It is further worth noting that with satellite launches, it is not detectable whether it is a missile or satellite until the satellite is in space. As such, it is important to keep in mind that the distinction between a missile or satellite launch is not so easy to finesse–one could disguise a missile launch as a satellite launch and one might not know until too late. It is unlikely that China would launch an unprovoked attack on Taiwan shortly before elections and so, if it had been a missile, it would have likely been to pass over Taiwan for the sake of threatening it. This illustrates the limited time to respond to missile assaults or threats of similar nature in wartime. The incident shows the importance of announcing civilian satellite launches ahead of time.
This is not the first time that China has sought to intimidate Taiwan through satellite launches either. The timing of the launch could be timed for shortly before elections.
The Ministry of National Defense’s Twitter account, as of press time, has not issued any statement on the incident one hour after the launch. This proves a slow response, given that information is already circulating widely publicly. Responses to disinformation and misinformation require speed, after all, and the situation proves different from air incursions that can be reported on after the fact, given that the incident was already being widely discussed among the general public. Yet it may be that the Taiwanese military is not used to civilian oversight in this respect.
It will not be surprising if partisan conflict subsequently sets in about the missile. As there were past satellite launches that occurred without any national text message alert being sent out and because of the ambiguity of whether a satellite or missile was launched, the KMT is likely to accuse the Tsai administration of amplifying the incident for electoral purposes.
This has been a recurring theme of the election cycle, with the KMT claiming that incidents such as reports that Taiwanese indie band Mayday was pressured by Chinese authorities were concocted by the DPP in collaboration with international media. Namely, in past election cycles, the DPP has benefited from public outrage against Chinese threats directed at Taiwanese or Taiwan as a whole. Examples include the Chou Tzu-yu incident before the 2016 elections, involving the Taiwanese member of South Korean girl group TWICE being pressured into apologizing for waving the ROC flag in a video–something read as support for Taiwanese independence by Chinese netizens even if this act would not have such connotations in Taiwan. Another significant example, as pertinent to events today, was when support for Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen rebounded after comments by Chinese President Xi Jinping in which he stated that force was still on the table for unifying Taiwan and China.
It is to be seen whether the incident serves to benefit the DPP in the upcoming elections. To be sure, the KMT will lean into its narrative that it is the only party in Taiwan able to maintain stable cross-strait relations and may accuse the DPP of playing up the incident.
But past precedents have suggested that Taiwanese tend to rally around the DPP in the face of threats–and even if the launch today was indeed only of a satellite, it offers an example of the kind of alerts that would occur on a daily basis in wartime. That being said, it is also clear from the present election cycle that members of the Taiwanese public are tired of an election cycle in which cross-strait issues are the only issues discussed, and the DPP may itself come under fire for the confused response by the Ministry of National Defense. Yet if the public does rally behind the DPP, this would prove another incident of China pushing Taiwanese away from it through threats or actions perceived as threats, when a charm offensive would probably prove more effective.