Brian Hioeby Brian Hioe
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Photo Credit: Ko Wen-je/Facebook
TODAY WAS THE last day for candidates to register for the presidential election, with the deadline being 5:30 PM. After yesterday’s drama, involving a televised public spat between all of the major pan-Blue presidential candidates, each candidate seemed set to field a separate run, with hopes of a joint ticket scuppered.
The bizarre nature of the televised spat, with Terry Gou’s continual references to the American holiday of Thanksgiving which is not widely celebrated in Taiwan, has since caused the incident to go viral. It is not expected that the incident will reflect well on the KMT. Ko later apologized for the incident, but criticized the KMT for trying to deflect responsibility during the meeting.
TPP presidential candidate Ko Wen-je sparked speculation by meeting with Foxconn founder and independent presidential candidate Terry Gou in the morning. Gou’s vice presidential candidate, Tammy Lai, was also present. The meeting lasted for two hours and sparked speculation that a potential alignment between Gou and Ko was still possible.
KMT presidential candidate Hou You-yi. Photo credit: Hou You-yi/Facebook
Ko then departed to the Central Election Commission (CEC) to register for the election. However, as reported last night by some outlets, Ko’s vice presidential candidate was not Gou, but instead TPP legislator Cynthia Wu. Wu hails from the wealthy and powerful family that owns the Shin Kong Group.
Wu’s nomination is ironic, considering that the TPP has otherwise framed itself as an anti-establishment party that is against vested interests. It is possible that Ko may hope to benefit from financial links to the Shin Kong Group, seeing as the TPP is a third party that lacks resources compared to the TPP and KMT. Ko’s statement on Wu’s nomination mostly emphasized his existing platform, rather than her political accomplishments.
Reports soon emerged that Hou’s vice presidential candidate would be media commentator Jaw Shaw-kong, best known as a pan-Blue firebrand. Jaw was originally a leading figure of the KMT in the 1990s, but later returned to politics in 2021 when he sought the KMT chairship. After Jaw’s confirmation as the KMT candidate at a party meeting held at 11 AM, Hou and Jaw set out to register around 11:45 AM.
The nomination of Jaw, a political hardliner, illustrates that the KMT intends to double down on appeals to traditionalists. This means that moderate voters are more likely to be pushed toward voting for Ko Wen-je. The KMT’s decision to focus on ideologically hardline candidates that are highly popular with deep Blues could also be seen in the nomination of former Kaohsiung mayor Han Kuo-yu, the KMT’s 2020 presidential candidate, at the number one position at the KMT’s party list. This indicates Han would become majority speaker if the KMT wins a majority in the legislature.
Ironically, My-Formosa polling actually showed Hou closing the gap between himself and Lai prior to the public spat. It is possible that Jaw’s nomination causes him to be seen also as being a hardliner in a way that alienates moderate supporters. However, this nomination is probably aimed at appealing to the KMT’s base, seeing as Hou is still regarded by some in the KMT with suspicion as a benshengren. Jaw is waishengren and has, in statements, claimed that they will divide up the work of campaigning so that he handles northern Taiwan and Hou handles southern Taiwan, a view reflective of regional political stereotypes in Taiwan.
Gou’s Facebook post announcing his withdrawal
It continued to be a question, then, as to whether Terry Gou would genuinely field a run. Gou was marginalized from the televised discussion between the pan-Blue candidates last night, with it becoming clear that they did not regard him as a serious candidate–he is, after all, polling dead last.
Gou announced in the late afternoon that he did not intend to run, but that he still strived for a change in the ruling party in Taiwan. It is to be seen if he campaigns for one candidate or another. The meeting with Ko prior to the announcement may indicate that he continues to be on good terms with him or that the decision was made in consultation with Ko. Ko may still benefit from his relationship with Gou, even if they will not be running on a joint ticket.
The die is cast for the 2024 elections. Given the drama around the possibility of a blue-white alignment, the choice of vice presidential candidate ultimately was an afterthought, as it was not known until the last minute who the vice presidential candidates of the TPP and KMT would be. This reflects to what extent the pan-Blue camp was unable to settle on crucial election choices in a timely manner and both parties now will not enjoy the burst of positive publicity that normally comes with announcing a vice presidential candidate. This reflects the continued weakness of the pan-Blue camp at present.