Brian Hioeby Brian Hioe
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Photo Credit: Indonesian Ministry of Maritime Affairs and Fisheries/Public Domain
TAIWAN HAS CALLED on the Indonesian government to clarify joint exercises it intends to hold with the People’s Liberation Army in waters east of Taiwan. In particular, the Taiwanese government has criticized the exercises as intended to reinforce claims over Taiwan.
The Indonesian government claims that the exercises are not intended for the sake of practicing military exercises, but are routine. Nevertheless, it is to be seen whether this reflects a tilt toward China by the Indonesian government.
Indonesia is currently governed by former military general Prabowo Subianto. Historically, Prabowo has been seen as anti-China, including accusations of drumming up Islamic anger against ethnic Chinese in Indonesia–such as led to widespread killings in 1998.
Still, the times have changed, and Prabowo may now be more interested in the idea of closer links with China. In particular, criticism of Prabowo on human rights grounds from the international community may incentivize Prabowo to seek closer links with China.
This is perhaps not so different from what occurred previously with Rodrigo Duterte in the Philippines. With Duterte, part of the reason why he shifted toward closer ties with China was because of international criticisms of the extrajudicial killings that occurred during his administration, conducted with the claim that this was targeting drug users and drug dealers. Duterte’s shift toward China was later reversed when “Bongbong” Ferdinand Marcos Jr. succeeded him as president.
It would, of course, be a blow to Taiwan if Indonesia were to increasingly side with China on maritime activity. Yet it can generally be expected that China will take what opportunities it can to expand its influence over maritime affairs in the region. Earlier this month, the Guangdong Maritime Safety Administration announced ahead of Typhoon Dolphin that it would be enforcing traffic controls over northbound vessels in the Taiwan Strait due to the impact of the storm.
Taiwan’s Maritime and Port Bureaus subsequently responded by issuing maritime safety notices using coastal radio and maritime safety centers to emphasize that the Taiwan Strait is international water, so that vessels should seek safety from the storm but disregard maritime traffic control requests from China. For its part, Taiwan’s maritime authorities issued a safety advisory during the storm, and no incidents of China attempting to enforce jurisdiction during the storm occurred.
Nevertheless, this would be a case of China attempting to reinforce claims over Taiwan using Typhoon Dolphin as a pretext. It is to be seen if other cases of China using typhoons to expand maritime claims occur in the near future. Certainly, it is already the case that Chinese embassies seek to frame themselves as more effective in their responses than Taiwanese representative offices when Taiwanese traveling abroad are impacted by disasters.