Brian Hioeby Brian Hioe
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Photo Credit: Gage Skidmore/WikiCommons/CC BY-SA 2.0
COMMENTS MADE by US President Donald Trump during an interview on Fox News, shortly after his summit in Beijing with Chinese President Xi Jinping, unusually echo China’s language on Taiwan. Likewise, Trump again suggests that arms sales to Taiwan are up for negotiation.
In the course of the interview, Trump suggests that political actors in Taiwan are seeking independence. Trump states that he is “not looking to have somebody go independent,” and suggests that Taiwan needs to “cool down a bit.”
To this extent, Trump calls on semiconductor companies to move to the US to avoid geopolitical risk. This follows up on how Trump’s accusations that Taiwan “stole” the US semiconductor industry have been recurrent in past years.
Likewise, in the course of the interview, Trump casts doubt on the US commitment to Taiwan, saying that he did not think it was logical for US troops to “travel 9,500 miles to fight a war.” Trump casts doubt on arms sales to Taiwan, which have continued to be held up by his administration, stating that arms sales to Taiwan are “a good negotiating chip for us.”
In this sense, Trump emphasizes a transactional view of US arms sales to Taiwan. The Six Assurances state that the US will continue to provide arms to Taiwan and that such arms sales are not subject to consultation with China. Nevertheless, before his trip to China, Trump suggested that arms sales would, in fact, be discussed with China. Trump’s comments after his trip, then, continue to echo that arms sales are provisional to Taiwan.
Trump’s summit with Xi led to no flashy deals and, in fact, seemed to have led to few grand pronouncements. When asked about Taiwan, Trump ignored questions from reporters. The US and Chinese readouts of the meeting, in fact, differed on the matter of whether Taiwan had come up at all, with the Chinese readout stating that the two leaders had discussed Taiwan and the US denying it, and an interview by Secretary of State Marco Rubio with NBC News during the trip emphasized that US policy on Taiwan was unchanged.
It now appears that Trump may, in fact, have intended to shift his posture on Taiwan, but that this was timed for after the summit. One notes that Taiwan has already adjusted its messaging, with the Lai administration usually referring to “Taiwan” as a sovereign and independent country that has no need to declare independence, but now referring to the “Republic of China.” Lai has also reiterated that Taiwan will not be “sacrificed or traded away”, stating that defending Taiwan has long been the consensus of the US and other democratic nations–though such comments make friction with the US all the more obvious.
It is probable that reassurances from Rubio and others who claim that US policy on Taiwan is unchanged will be drowned out by Trump’s shift. There may be continued tension on framing from within the Trump administration.
In the meantime, it can be expected that China will seek to amplify Trump’s interview and his new framing. This can already be observed with regard to Chinese state-run media, online Chinese nationalists, and the “Fifty Cent Party.”
To this extent, with Taiwan watching the US carefully, it can also be expected that the KMT will lean into attacks on the DPP on the basis of Trump’s comments. It was, after all, KMT chair Cheng Li-wun who shifted messaging between both the KMT and CCP to emphasize opposition toward Taiwanese independence, during her meeting with Xi in April. Since then, the CCP has doubled down on messaging against Taiwanese independence.
It, too, is known that Cheng intends to travel to the US in June and hopes to meet with Trump. With Trump already indirectly echoing her language, through echoing how China has adjusted its messaging after her meeting with Xi, it is anyone’s guess if Trump would, in fact, allow for such a meeting. If this occurs, Cheng would be able to claim to have had a political accomplishment that the Lai administration has not been able to, while moderating her pro-China image, and seeking to influence the US-Taiwan relationship.