Brian Hioeby Brian Hioe
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Photo Credit: Lai Ching-te/Facebook
A PLANNED TRIP by President Lai Ching-te to Eswatini has been cancelled. This apparently took place due to Madagascar, Mauritius, and Seychelles retracting overflight permission for Lai’s plane to pass over their airspace on his way to Eswatini.
Lai has, in comments, suggested that this occurred due to economic pressure by China on these countries. Lai administration officials have stated that China threatened to revoke debt relief if such countries allowed Lai’s plane to transit through their airspace in this way. For its part, Madagascar claims to uphold One China and that its actions were in accordance with that.
It is unusual for China to hit out at overseas trips by Taiwanese presidents in this way. The Eswatini trip would have been Lai’s second overseas trip and was to visit the 40th anniversary of King Mswati III’s accession to the throne.
Eswatini is Taiwan’s only diplomatic ally in Africa. Pressuring other countries to prevent Lai from passing over their airspace shows China’s reach in Africa. China, of course, finances large Belt and Road Initiative infrastructure projects aimed at expanding Chinese political and economic power in Africa. By contrast, even if Taiwan has proposed ideas as an “Africa Plan” to expand influence in Africa, akin to how the New Southbound Policy has sought to strengthen ties between Taiwan and Southeast Asia, this has never truly come to fruition.
Taiwanese political leaders most often make overseas trips to shore up relations with Taiwan’s few remaining diplomatic allies, who are often at risk of switching diplomatic relations to China. China, of course, can offer much more than Taiwan when it comes to economic opportunities. While this was not planned for Lai’s Eswatini trip, such trips can also allow Taiwanese political leaders to make stopovers in the US. Though such stopovers are not conducted as formal visits but framed as only for the sake of transit, they allow meetings to take place between American elected officials and Taiwanese political leaders.
It is a new move in China’s diplomatic playbook to pressure other countries to revoke airspace rights for Taiwanese political leaders, however. It is to be seen if China regularizes its use of such tactics, so as to further constrain Taiwan’s diplomatic space.
One notes that all major political parties in Taiwan condemned the move by China, including some members of the KMT, though party chair Cheng Li-wun did the opposite and defended China. It is to be seen if China’s move was seen as too much for even most of the KMT.
Even so, one notes that in spite of Taiwan touting its credentials as a democracy on such overseas trips, Eswatini is an authoritarian monarchy.
The constitution was voided in 1973, and political parties were banned, as a result of which free and fair elections still do not take place in Eswatini today. Although Mswati agreed to constitutional changes in 2005, he retains his grip on power. Under Mswati III’s rule, life expectancy has halved in Eswatini since 2000.
Pro-democracy protests rocked Eswatini in the summer of 2021, with the public calling for the right to vote. In the violence that followed, 28 were shot, with demonstrators alleging that at least twenty were killed. Tear gas was used by police against demonstrators, and Internet services were suspended, with a curfew declared in major urban centers, in which buildings were burned during the turmoil, including Manzini and Mbabane, as well as the industrial center of Matsapha. The Eswatini government denied reports that Mswati III had fled the country during the demonstrations.
Much as occurred during Taiwan’s authoritarian period, with the killing of dissidents, in 2023, opposition politician Thulani Maseko was killed by unknown gunmen in a shooting widely suspected of being ordered by the monarchy. Maseko was a human rights lawyer and public intellectual. At the time, Mswati III stated, “People should not shed tears and complain about mercenaries killing them,” implying that he had ordered the killing.
Maseko’s widow, human rights defender Tanele Maseko, later visited Taiwan in 2023. Tanele Maseko stated in an interview that she hoped Taiwanese people realized that human rights defenders in Eswatini were labeled terrorists, forcing many into exile, as well as that it proved hypocritical for Taiwan to hope for support from other countries against China, as a democracy, while backing an authoritarian regime and dictator in Eswatini.
Indeed, Taiwan has long been accused of paying off diplomatic allies for recognition through “dollar diplomacy.” This would be through subsidizing infrastructure development projects or paying off politicians through slush funds in its diplomatic allies in return for recognition, so that such allies can continue to speak up for Taiwan in international bodies. Taiwanese development institutions in Eswatini also face allegations of labor abuses and mistreatment of workers.
Still, one expects few criticisms of Taiwan’s ties with Eswatini, particularly as the cancellation of Lai’s visit takes Eswatini out of the spotlight. Instead, any discussion of the issue will focus primarily on Chinese coercion.