Brian Hioeby Brian Hioe
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Photo Credit: Presidential Office of Ukraine/WikiCommons/CC BY-SA 4.0
UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT Volodymyr Zelenskyy recently criticized Taiwan for not doing enough to prevent Russia from skirting sanctions to obtain necessary parts for missiles. In response, Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te responded that Taiwan has no tolerance for those that aid aggressors and skirt international sanctions. Still, the episode is revealing about many of the challenges that Taiwan faces at present, particularly at a time when Taiwan is attempting to separate its defense supply chain from China.
Zelenskyy’s criticisms are significant. Taiwan has seen common cause in Ukraine, as another country invaded by a much-larger power. Russia’s claims that Ukraine has no distinct history, language, or culture of its own are reminiscent of China’s justification of claims over Taiwan on the same basis.
Comparisons between Taiwan and Ukraine occur from pro-China political actors, as well. China, as well as the domestic pro-unification opposition of the KMT, has leaned into claims that Ukraine provoked Russia into a defense war by getting too close to NATO, and the Lai administration is risking this by getting too close to the US. Such rhetoric more broadly feeds into broader US-skeptic political discourse, which the Lai administration has attempted to counter by emphasizing that the US continues to be a reliable ally against Chinese threats.
Still, one notes that in 2021, the Washington Post reported that Taiwanese semiconductors were present in the Chinese hypersonic missiles pointed at Taiwan. This report was quickly denied by not only TSMC, but the Taiwanese government.
At the same time, it would not exactly surprise if Taiwanese semiconductors were present in Chinese missiles pointed at Taiwan. Taiwan produces 60% of the global supply of semiconductors and over 90% of advanced chips. It is thought that the world’s reliance on Taiwanese semiconductors incentivizes western powers to defend Taiwan, given their dependency on Taiwan–as well as discourages China from attacking, considering that China is also dependent on Taiwanese semiconductors.
Indeed, even in the face of sanctions from the US attempting to hinder its ability to build up its domestic semiconductor industry and AI capability, China has continued to be able to obtain TSMC chips. This is sometimes carried out through third-party intermediaries, based in places such as Singapore.
As Taiwan attempts to shore up its defense from Chinese threats, it has proven difficult for Taiwan to separate its supply chain from China. Oftentimes, it is found that companies source materials from China due to cost-cutting, or due to oversight in the vetting process. For example, it was previously found that military vehicles were using security cameras manufactured in China. But, more broadly, this inability to disentangle supply chains from China is a product of the economic integration of Taiwan and China that occurred in past decades, as a result of trade policy advanced by the KMT.
Disentangling defense supply chains from China is particularly visible with regard to drones. It is expected that drones will play a large part in Taiwan’s defense strategy against China, which will have to be asymmetric in nature against China’s much-larger military force. As seen in Ukraine, Taiwan would likely need to expand drones in large numbers to fend off an invading force. Yet China is the world leader in cheap drones, with Russia and Ukraine alike employing Chinese drones in large numbers.
It is true that Taiwanese companies have long had a history of skirting embargoes to sell to countries sanctioned on human rights grounds, including not only Russia but North Korea. This is in part due to weak compliance measures in Taiwanese companies, with the small-to-medium enterprises that make up the lion’s share of Taiwan’s economy having little to no in-house compliance, and the onus being on border customs to address these issues. Taiwanese companies have also sometimes taken advantage of Taiwan’s lack of membership in international institutions to skirt regulations, even as Taiwan seeks to depict itself as voluntarily complying with international conventions in spite of being denied admission to international bodies.
Pressure on Taiwan to clean up its supply chain is usually external, as seen in other industries, such as seafood or manufacturing. The Taiwanese government has historically tried to defend the record of Taiwan’s distant-water fishing fleet, rather than take it to account over allegations of forced labor. It is to be seen if Zelenskyy’s criticisms lead to any attempt to take action on when Taiwanese companies skirt international sanctions on Russia, then, or if business simply carries on as usual.