Brian Hioeby Brian Hioe
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Photo Credit: Kremlin/WikiCommons/CC BY 4.0
THE CHINESE GOVERNMENT has continued to purge senior military officials. The latest round of purges leaves Chinese president Xi Jinping in sole operational control of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), with General Zhang Youxia and General Liu Zhengli placed under investigation over apparent violations. The fall from grace of the two generals has taken many by surprise, particularly as Zhang was a personal friend of Xi.
It is generally thought that the PLA is seeking to clean up corruption within its ranks, a prerequisite for taking military action against Taiwan. Corruption, graft, and cost-cutting are a severe obstacle to combat readiness for the PLA, particularly as an operation to invade Taiwan would be among the most complex military operations in human history.
In early 2024, it was found that water was used instead of fuel in Chinese missiles. Lids of rocket launchers were also found to be faulty. Apart from the fact that this made the PLA an international laughingstock, this went to show that the PLA is undercut by severe issues of internal corruption. Again, the complications of taking Taiwan would involve not only moving massive amounts of troops, but also amassing critical supplies ranging from blood supply to simply the ramps to move troops onto the vessels that would be used for their deployment.
It is unclear what other capacities of the PLA may be undercut by issues with corruption. China has not fought a war in forty years, making actual combat scenarios untested territory for the PLA.
Recent military maneuvers by the PLA show unprecedented moves that incorporate civilian ships, including amassing thousands of civilian fishing vessels as part of maneuvers that seem intended to practice for a blockade. As China does not have the lift capacity at present to bring sufficient troops to Taiwan with military ships, it is thought that China would also incorporate civilian ferries into an invading force. Coordination with civilians would result in further complications that would then be compounded by issues with corruption.
Still, one notes that analysts are of two minds regarding Xi’s purge of high-ranking generals. Some views are that the purges of China’s top military officials shows the PLA’s lack of combat readiness in terms of as risky an operation as action directed at Taiwan. Military action directed at Taiwan could result in tens of thousands of Chinese deaths, as well as global economic cataclysm in such a manner that risks the Chinese Communist Party’s foothold on power in China.
Other views are that the purge of top generals makes the odds of an assault on Taiwan all the more likely. After all, the purge further concentrates unchecked power in the hands of Xi Jinping, making the decision-making of the PLA all the more irrational. Even if the PLA or CCP is hardly run on a democratic basis, decision-making by more than one individual is still more rational.
And with one man in power, decision-making may be made on the basis of personal interest rather than that of China. Xi, for example, may launch a war in spite of the massive costs for China as a way to distract from domestic political issues in China, or as a way of sidelining rivals, in a ploy to maintain personal power.
The divergence of these two views reflects the fundamental opacity of the internal machinations of the CCP and PLA. It proves hard to draw any conclusion regarding what purges mean for Taiwan, even if one can speculate and make educated guesses. It is to be seen what comes next, but keeping a close eye on internal shifts in the PLA continues to be of importance.