Brian Hioeby Brian Hioe
語言:
English
Photo Credit: PLAN/Sun Hongjie/Public Domain
THE PEOPLE’S LIBERATION ARMY has announced a new set of military drills to take place around Taiwan starting tomorrow. These drills are entitled “Justice Mission 2025.” This breaks from preceding Chinese military drills, with two drills in 2024 entitled “Joint Sword 2024-A” and “Joint Sword 2024-B” in May and October. It is understood that “Justice Mission 2025” will practice blockades of ports and other key strategic infrastructure in Taiwan, with live-fire drills taking place in five maritime and airspace zones.
Chinese drills in April 2023 were, likewise, entitled “Joint Sword.” The 2023 drills marked the regularization of Chinese military drills directed at Taiwan, with China using then-US Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in August 2022 as a pretext to hold drills around Taiwan on an annual, if not greater, basis in the same month.
Likewise, the timing of the April drills was possibly to express displeasure with then-President Tsai Ing-wen transiting through the US. Drills that took place in August of that year were sometimes interpreted as expressing displeasure with then-Vice President Lai Ching-te transiting through the US. The August 2023 drills were not termed “Joint Sword,” however.
With “Justice Mission 2025”, it was generally thought that China would launch drills before the end of the year. Taiwanese government officials had warned of the high odds that China would launch drills before the end of the year for some months. China already held a series of drills in April that was termed “Strait Thunder 2025-a”. It is unclear what reason, if any, China decided to change the name of the present drills to “Justice Mission 2025” rather than go with the name “Strait Thunder 2025-b.”
If China now times its drills to take place regularly both in the spring and fall, one notes that such drills occur irrespective of anything that occurs in Taiwanese domestic politics. China notably did not hold off on its “Strait Thunder 2025-a” drills earlier this year in spite of the possibility that the “Great Recall Movement” directed against KMT legislators could possibly stand to be impacted.
Similarly, a delegation of seven KMT legislators recently traveled to Xiamen in order to conduct meetings with Chinese government officials and the Taiwanese business community in China. Taipei mayor Chiang Wan-an only traveled to Shanghai a day prior to the announcement of “Justice Mission 2025” for the annual Twin Cities Forum held between Taipei and Shanghai on an annual basis.
Given these frequent trips to China, in which it is unclear what exchanges may occur between KMT politicians and their Chinese counterparts, there have been efforts to pass legislation requiring legislators to seek approval before travel to China and report on their itineraries in China. It has recently emerged that the KMT blocked such legislation 751 times across four legislative sessions since last April.
Indeed, in spite of these trips to China, this evidently did not prevent China from launching yet another set of military drills directed at Taiwan. This goes counter to the claim by KMT politicians that their regularized exchanges with China decrease cross-strait tensions, with KMT chair Cheng Li-wun stating that she plans to meet with Chinese president Xi Jinping in the near future.
It is notable that China waited until the last days of the year in order to hold the drills. This timing would be to make it apparent that China would hold the drills simply before the year ended, in order to make it apparent that China intends to carry out drills two times a year going forward.
Furthermore, given that China waited until the last two days of 2025 signals how China aims to project uncertainty about its military actions, while at the same time aiming to project the certainty that military activity against Taiwan will remain consistent. That China somewhat arbitrarily changes the name of its drills may be with the same aim.
Still, perhaps China’s “Justice Mission 2025” should put to rest the view that Chinese drills are only in response to actions by Taiwanese politicians involving international travel, invariably framed as “provocative” by certain Western commentators of a pro-appeasement bent, even when transits by Taiwanese presidents through the US have occurred on a regular basis for decades. Although the drills this time are perceived as in response to a US weapons sale to Taiwan of 11 billion USD announced earlier this month, one notes that China could not simply teleport its ships and materiel into place to hold the drills apropos of nothing, and that warnings about imminent drills from the Taiwanese government occurred well before the announcement of the weapons sale. Had the timing for the drills been any different, one notes that they likely been interpreted as a response to comments by Japanese prime minister Sanae Takaichi perceived as supportive of Taiwan in November.
Chinese drills directed toward Taiwan, then, take place on their own internal logic rather than one that is only ever responsive to Taiwan or the US, as a form of regularized military training to practice for a blockade. It is probable that such drills will simply occur twice a year, if not more, irrespective of anything that occurs in Taiwanese or American politics.