Brian Hioeby Brian Hioe
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Photo Credit: ynes95/WikiCommons/CC BY-SA 2.0
TAIWAN MAY BE on the verge of a constitutional crisis, with Premier Cho Jung-tai refusing to sign legislation passed by the legislature. Cho’s refusal to sign such legislation occurs with the support of President Lai Ching-te.
The legislature in question would increase subsidies from the central government to local governments. The Executive Yuan, as headed by Cho, argues that this would push the central government over debt spending limits.
The premier has never refused to sign legislation passed by the legislature before in Taiwanese history. The DPP takes the view that refusing to sign the bill is within the premier’s authority, with the view that the legislation passed by the Legislative Yuan is unconstitutional.
At the heart of what may lead to a constitutional crisis is whether it is Taiwan’s executive branch of government or its legislature that holds powers over budgeting. The KMT earlier this year carried out the largest set of cuts to the government budget in history. These cuts were carried out in the name of fiscal balance, in spite of a record-high tax windfall.
In the wake of the budget cuts, public anger sparked the Great Recall Movement against the KMT, with a civil society-led movement to recall all KMT legislators. A particularly sensitive issue was that the KMT intended to cut the defense budget at a time when the US has threatened to end support for Taiwan if it does not increase military spending.
Unsurprisingly, the budget cuts led to a decrease in subsidies from the central government to the local government. The KMT cried foul, however, seeing as a number of local governments are controlled by the KMT, leading to the current legislation.
Still, the issue at hand continues to be that the KMT-controlled legislature has sought to expand its powers and to reduce the powers of other branches of government. At the heart of the budget cuts early this year was an effort by the KMT to claim powers of budgeting from the Executive Yuan and to transfer it to the legislature. This is again the case with the legislation about subsidies to local governments. Likewise, the KMT is seeking to increase the power of the legislature in relegating the Executive Yuan to a mere rubber stamp for the legislature.
Indeed, last year, prior to the Great Recall Movement, the Bluebird Movement erupted in response to the KMT seeking to pry investigatory powers away from the judiciary and to the legislature. The KMT-controlled legislature has also sought to shift powers over media regulation to the legislature and to revive police bodies that were used to target political enemies of the party in the past and subject them to legislative authority, rather than that of the judiciary.
Normally, the Constitutional Court might be called on to resolve the constitutionality of the legislation. But the Constitutional Court has been frozen through legislation passed by the KMT. This occurred after the Constitutional Court struck down the investigatory powers that the KMT sought in the series of actions that led to the eruption of the Bluebird Movement.
The KMT could potentially respond by passing a motion of no-confidence in the premier. At the same time, if this occurred, a legal mechanism would allow Lai Ching-te, as president,to dissolve the legislature and call for a new set of elections.
It is unclear whether Lai would do this, particularly as one of the reasons for the failure of the Great Recall Movement was that they were seen unfavorably compared to the use of elections as a more standardized way of resolving political disputes between the two parties. In its public statement, the DPP has suggested that the KMT should pursue this course of action if it disagrees with Cho’s actions.
Yet this could potentially be a high-stakes negotiating tactic to force the KMT to back down from its current freeze on the Constitutional Court. After all, if the Constitutional Court has no ability to make judgments on this unresolved issue, the Executive Yuan can simply not sign legislation passed by the Legislative Yuan–unilaterally giving itself a veto power, much as the KMT has itself sought to accrue new powers.
That being said, it is also possible that an arms race begins between the legislature and executive in which both seek to accrue new powers. As such, it is possible that the KMT further digs in with scorched-earth tactics in response to the DPP’s actions.
Taiwan has not seen a constitutional crisis in the past decade since the Sunflower Movement. If Taiwan is on the precipice of a constitutional crisis, it is to be seen whether this will be a trigger for protest as it was in 2014. So far, public reactions have been unusually muted. Uncertain times are ahead.