Brian Hioeby Brian Hioe
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Photo Credit: Dan Hetherington/WikiCommons/CC BY-SA 3.0
TAIWAN HAS CONTINUED to be a contentious issue in the Solomon Islands. With the election of Jeremiah Manele as prime minister, given that Manale is understood as favoring ties with China, this led to the withdrawal of the Solomon Islands from the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China (IPAC) earlier this month.
Taiwan, too, was a factor in the Solomon Islands’ withdrawal from IPAC. Specifically, “One China” was cited as a reason for the withdrawal from IPAC. At the same time, the actions of the Manele government have led to questions about Chinese influence in the island nation.
The Solomon Islands were a diplomatic ally of Taiwan until 2019. The Solomon Islands, which is many times smaller than Taiwan with a population of 600,000, was the largest of Taiwan’s Pacific allies. The population of Taiwan’s other Pacific allies at the time were less than the population of the Solomon Islands combined.
Nevertheless, in the years since, the Solomon Islands’ breaking of ties with Taiwan and the establishment of ties with China has continued to be contested in the country’s domestic politics. In 2019, protests broke out against Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare.
The protests were sufficiently intense that a 36-hour lockdown was imposed in Honiara, the capital of the Solomon Islands, following an attempt by hundreds of demonstrators to occupy the legislature. A police station, among other buildings, was set on fire. Looting also took place, including of Chinese-owned businesses. Demonstrators reportedly numbered up to or around 1,000, with police using tear gas and rubber bullets on the crowd. Schools and businesses in Honiara were mostly closed, as protesters called for Sogavare to step down.
While the protests were focused on Sogavare’s political administration, the decision of the Sogavare administration to switch recognition from Taiwan to China was a key point of contention, then, with many residents of the island of Malaita proving critical of the decision. Strong ties had developed between Malaitan communities and Taiwan in past years.
More broadly, Malaita has a history of calls for independence from the rest of the Solomon Islands, with Malaitan Premier Daniel Suidani having called for a referendum on the issue in September 2020. As such, it is to be questioned to what extent the Sogavare administration’s switch in recognition between Taiwan and China is a proxy issue that returns to these issues regarding independence, rather than genuinely about Taiwan itself.
The primary aim of Taiwan in maintaining ties with its few remaining diplomatic allies is in order that such allies will speak up for Taiwan in international organizations. In return, Taiwan provides economic aid, infrastructure investment, and educational opportunities. Taiwan is larger than all of its diplomatic allies, some of which have troubled human rights records. These ties to diplomatic allies date back to KMT authoritarianism. Whenever Taiwan loses a diplomatic ally, oftentimes students studying in Taiwan from that country on scholarships and other individuals caught between that ally and Taiwan are left in a lurch.
With the possibility of the Solomon Islands’ opposition taking power, the possibility of switching ties back to Taiwan has sometimes been floated. At present, however, that is unlikely to happen.
It can be observed that reactions to the Solomon Islands’ withdrawal from IPAC, there have been concerns about Chinese influence from Australia and New Zealand. Transparency Solomon Islands, an anti-corruption NGO, has suggested that graft on the part of China could be involved. This is possible, though there are plenty of reasons as to why China might switch recognition on its own.
It is important to note that Taiwan will hardly be the only country concerned about the shift of Pacific countries toward China. Closer ties with Pacific nations could potentially serve to extend China’s geopolitical influence along Pacific oceanic routes, which would only impact other regional powers, but also Western countries. However, while another American political administration might have taken more proactive interest in the matter, the Trump administration is not likely to pay attention to the Pacific.