Brian Hioeby Brian Hioe
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English
Photo Credit: Eric Chu/Facebook
THE KMT’S EFFORTS to push for a referendum at present take place in an unusual manner. Namely, the KMT is not collecting signatures for a national referendum, but instead seeking to bypass this process through the legislature. Consequently, the DPP sought to physically block the KMT in the legislature last week.
Current referendum laws do, in fact, allow for national referendums to take place through legislative proposal, rather than only on the basis of collecting signatures nationally for a referendum to take place. The Executive Yuan can also propose national referendums.
The KMT hopes to repeat the successes of the 2018 elections, in which the KMT was seen as successfully leveraging on the referendum in order to defeat the DPP electorally. However, the KMT likely hopes that the referendum will allow it to fend off the series of recalls targeting all KMT legislators, with an unprecedented wave of referendums targeting all KMT legislators at present.
The KMT currently calls for referendums on two issues. The first is capital punishment, with the KMT framing a ruling by the Constitutional Court last year as a de facto abolishment of the death penalty. This is not true, seeing as the ruling narrowed the scope of capital punishment, but it remains in the books. The last execution in Taiwan occurred in January, with the Lai administration probably carrying it out in order to disprove KMT claims that capital punishment has been outlawed in Taiwan.
The second is against “martial law.” The KMT claims that the restoration of military courts to address cases of Chinese espionage is a de facto return to martial law. At the same time, one notes that military courts were only phased out in 2013. The new military courts will have a narrower scope than those that existed in 2013, to focus on espionage cases.
Yet, in 2018, the KMT gathered signatures to hold national referendums. Namely, in 2018, the KMT did not hold the majority in the legislature. Even so, gathering signatures nationwide was a means of the KMT building up political momentum in a manner that eventually allowed it to have a successful referendum.
KMT caucus leader Fu Kun-chi. Photo credit: Fu Kun-chi/Facebook
Another consideration for the KMT may be its current stumbles in its efforts to recall DPP legislators. Specifically, the current wave of recalls facing KMT legislators is due to efforts by the KMT to block or drastically cut the national budget, reducing the government’s operational budget by 34%. In response, the KMT sought to organize its own set of recall campaigns targeting DPP legislators.
Though the KMT should have no issue gathering the number of signatures for at least the first stage of recall petitions, the KMT’s recall efforts have stumbled unusually. Apart from that some campaigns have failed to obtain the required number of signatures, others have falsified names, or signatures of deceased individuals.
There are several possible explanations. One is that the KMT has resorted to shortcuts in signature collection, which may involve fraud. This would be far from unheard of in Taiwanese politics, given the rigging of the voting system for decades by the KMT during authoritarian times.
But the more probable explanation appears to have its roots in the weaknesses of the KMT’s local party chapters at present, meaning that incorrect or falsified information in signature collection is not being vetted and checked. Compared to a normal election year, the KMT is unable to channel as many resources from the central party toward local branches. The KMT may have also adopted a strategy of pursuing a referendum through the legislature because it is unable to count on local branches to gather the necessary signatures.
Either way, seeking signatures from the general public and gathering the requisite number of signatures allows referendums to build legitimacy. Without carrying this out, the KMT may have challenges with its referendums, particularly with the DPP and Central Election Commission hitting out at the referendum questions as superfluous, given that capital punishment is still carried out in Taiwan, and it is not exactly as though Taiwan has declared martial law. Even if polling universally shows that capital punishment continues to be popular in Taiwan, it is to be seen how successful the KMT’s referendums are.