Tang Meng Kitby Tang Meng Kit
語言:
English
Photo Credit: Stefan Fussan/WikiCommons/CC BY-SA 3.0
CHINA HAS SPENT years trying to win over Taiwan without force using media, culture and economic incentives to shift public opinion. However, rather than drawing Taiwan closer, these efforts have backfired. Taiwanese identity has grown stronger, and trust in China has declined.
Soft power is the ability to shape the preferences of others through appeal and attraction rather than coercion. However, China’s reliance on economic pressure, censorship and political influence contradicts this definition, aligning more closely with “sharp power”. It is a form of influence that relies on manipulation and coercion rather than voluntary attraction. Instead of fostering goodwill, China’s approach feels like pressure; and Taiwan has responded by pushing further away.
Taiwan represents the most significant challenge for China. If Beijing is unable to bring it under its influence through peaceful means, its choices are limited. Resorting to military action is expensive, fraught with danger and has the potential to ignite a broader conflict. The shortcomings of China’s soft power increase the likelihood of confrontation. Understanding why China’s strategy is failing shows how Taiwan is resisting and why the divide is only growing.
The Decline of Chinese Media Influence
ONCE POPULAR in Taiwan, Chinese dramas and pop music have lost their appeal. Government censorship has drained creativity, making entertainment predictable and infused with nationalist themes. Rather than engaging audiences, films and TV shows have become political tools. Taiwanese viewers, accustomed to free expression, now favour their own media, where artists can speak without restriction.
Chinese celebrities have also faced backlash. Many are pressured to apologize for referring to Taiwan as a country or are forced to declare loyalty to Beijing. These incidents fuel resentment rather than connection. The 2015 case of Taiwanese K-pop singer Chou Tzuyu, who was forced to apologize for waving Taiwan’s flag, intensified distrust toward China’s influence over entertainers. Actress Ouyang Nana has faced criticism for expressing pro-China views, while some, like Angela Zhang, remain neutral to preserve their cross-strait careers.
While some celebrities continue to express pro-China views, particularly during culturally significant periods like Lunar New Year, the overall trend indicates a growing wariness among Taiwanese audiences toward such endorsements. This shift reflects a broader skepticism of China’s influence operations, encompassing not just entertainment but also cyber activities and diplomatic maneuvers aimed at undermining Taiwan’s self-governance.
Beyond entertainment, China has sought to control Taiwan’s media landscape by funding pro-China news outlets. These efforts have been exposed, triggering public backlash. Disinformation campaigns, particularly those aimed at influencing elections, have been debunked and ridiculed. A 2023 study by Taiwan’s Ministry of Digital Affairs found that over 70% of young Taiwanese distrust content from pro-China media sources. The more Beijing tries to manipulate the narrative, the less influence it actually holds.
Economic Leverage: A Failing Strategy
CHINA ONCE WIELDED significant economic power over Taiwan. In the early 2000s, many Taiwanese enterprises ventured into the mainland, drawn by rapid economic expansion. That influence is now diminishing. With China’s economy slowing and political uncertainties rising, more Taiwanese firms are looking toward Southeast Asia and the United States. Economic dependence on China now feels like a risk rather than an opportunity.
Beijing has tried to force compliance by cracking down on Taiwanese brands that do not align with its political stance. Businesses have been pressured to take pro-China positions or face economic punishment. In 2021, several Taiwanese bubble tea brands faced boycotts and regulatory scrutiny in China after failing to explicitly endorse Beijing’s views on Taiwan. This strategy has fuelled distrust instead of loyalty. Instead of strengthening ties, China’s economic coercion has made engagement with the mainland seem like a liability.
China’s previous economic strategy, including the 2008 Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA), momentarily strengthened economic ties, demonstrating China’s early success in soft power. However, Taiwan’s shifting economic landscape, coupled with fears of over-reliance, reversed this trend. Beijing’s failure to adapt its strategy has now turned economic incentives into economic liabilities.
However, despite these shifts, many Taiwanese businesses still operate in China. According to a 2023 report by Taiwan’s Ministry of Economic Affairs, Taiwanese investment in China totaled approximately US$3.04 billion, showing that while diversification is happening, complete economic disengagement is not. Semiconductor companies like TSMC continue to have supply-chain dependencies on Chinese manufacturers. This suggests that while Taiwan is reducing its reliance on China, the economic connection remains significant, complicating full disengagement.
Beijing dangles economic incentives but only for those who comply with its demands. Those who refuse face repercussions. As a result, rather than expanding its influence, China has only succeeded in alienating Taiwan further.
The Rise of Taiwanese Identity: China’s Biggest Miscalculation
TAIWAN’S SENSE OF IDENTITY is at an all-time high. A 2023 survey by National Chengchi University’s Election Study Center found that over 63% of Taiwanese now identify exclusively as Taiwanese rather than Chinese. Among young people, that number is even higher. Beijing has miscalculated this shift, assuming Taiwan’s connection to China would remain strong. Instead, Taiwan perceives itself as distinct, and China’s actions have only reinforced this belief.
The 2019 crackdown on Hong Kong was a turning point. Many in Taiwan had once considered China’s “One Country, Two Systems” model. But after seeing Hong Kong’s freedoms stripped away, support for that idea collapsed. China’s promise of peaceful coexistence lost credibility. Unification with China now looks like a direct threat to Taiwan’s democracy.
Taiwan is not just resisting. It is actively countering China’s influence. The government has introduced media literacy programs to combat disinformation. Civil society groups are strengthening Taiwanese culture through art, music, and historical preservation. Instead of being shaped by China’s soft power, Taiwan is defining its own identity on its own terms. The more Beijing tries to impose its narrative, the more Taiwan pushes back.
The Bigger Picture: Future Strategies for China
Despite its failures, China’s influence is not entirely absent. Some elements of soft power have achieved limited success. Cultural and religious exchanges continue, with thousands of Taiwanese pilgrims traveling to China for festivals. However, these cultural ties have not translated into broader political support for Beijing.
Looking ahead, Beijing may recalibrate its strategy, investing more in digital influence, AI-driven engagement or indirect cultural diplomacy. Some argue that Taiwan’s economic diversification may not be sustainable in the long term. If economic instability or a more pragmatic administration emerges, Taiwan may be forced into deeper economic engagement with China. However, if Beijing continues relying on coercion, these strategies are unlikely to succeed.
To regain influence, Beijing would need to adopt a true soft power strategy – investing in genuine cultural exchange, allowing more creative freedom in entertainment and fostering economic partnerships without political strings attached. Learning from Japan and South Korea, which have successfully spread cultural influence without political coercion, could offer a roadmap for China to rebuild trust.
China’s failure in Taiwan exposes a deeper flaw in its approach. Soft power is about attraction, not coercion. Unless China dramatically rethinks its approach, reunification will remain as distant as ever.