Brian Hioeby Brian Hioe
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Photo Credit: Gage Skidmore/Flickr/CC BY-SA 2.0
CONFIRMATION HEARINGS for Elbridge Colby, the Trump administration’s nominee for undersecretary of defense, are underway. The confirmation hearings have attracted a great deal of attention due to Colby’s past views on Taiwan.
Colby, who maintains an active presence on Twitter, at one point suggested that the US should bomb Taiwanese semiconductor manufacturing giant TSMC in the event of a Chinese invasion. Colby stated that this was due to Taiwan not doing enough for its own defense and that this was potentially necessary in wartime to keep TSMC out of Chinese hands.
Unsurprisingly, this outlandish claim prompted alarm and anger in Taiwan. The US bombing Taiwan, its ally, would be an act of war. Consequently, Colby’s statements became fodder for US-skeptic discourse.
US-skeptic discourse is political discourse in Taiwan that seeks to cast doubt on the reliability of the US as an ally in wartime. It is specifically a phenomenon that is linked to the first Trump administration’s actions. Even as support for Taiwan increased during the first Trump administration, the Trump administration was also marked by a series of actions that led to questions about whether the US could unpredictably throw Taiwan under the bus, as observed in comments by Trump that suggested that he viewed Taiwan as a chess piece to potentially be traded off with China to secure a deal.
During the second Trump administration, the Taiwanese government found appointments of individuals with whom it is familiar to be reassuring. Examples include Ivan Kanapathy serving as senior director for Asia in the National Security Council, and Marco Rubio as Secretary of State. On the other hand, the appointments of individuals such as Elbridge Colby are seen as alarming.
Elbridge Colby. Photo credit: Monica King/Public Domain
Indeed, the MAGA Republican wing of the Trump administration is newly ascendant. Such individuals have at times called for America to abandon its historic security commitments, or to turn up pressure on traditional allies, such as in Trump’s suggestion that Taiwan should pay the US for its defense, the highly extractive natural resource deal that Trump demanded of Ukraine in exchange for security guarantees, and the suspension of aid for Ukraine after the Trump-Zelenskyy argument earlier this month.
During the confirmation hearing, Colby affirmed that the fall of Taiwan to a Chinese invasion would be disastrous.
It, too, is noteworthy that the KMT’s cuts to Taiwan’s defense budget were brought up during the hearing by Republican Senator Dan Sullivan and Independent Senator Angus King. Sullivan referred to the KMT as “playing a dangerous game on their defense budget.”
At the same time, Colby also reiterated the assertion that Taiwan should raise its defense budget to 10% of GDP. This is a claim that Trump has thrown out from time to time.
Taiwan would not be able to raise its defense budget to 10% of its GDP. Namely, defense already consists of around 1/4th of government spending. As such, even raising the defense budget to 5%, as often requested of the US, would be difficult.
Although the 5% number is thrown around to suggest that Taiwan’s defense budget should be in line with that of Israel, social services would have to be vastly cut to do so. This would be suicide for any elected politician, whether KMT or DPP.
10%, then, would be impossible. Raising the defense budget to 10% would likely be more than Taiwan’s current operating government spending and would require a vast overhaul of Taiwan’s tax system to accomplish.
Apart from that one can see that there is a pattern of moving goalposts among those who call for Taiwan to raise its defense budget, it is probable that Colby and others are aware this is impossible. It may be, then, that this outlandish argument by Colby–hardly a friend of Taiwan as evidenced in his past comments about bombing TSMC–is thrown around to establish a pretext for the US abandoning any commitment to Taiwan, in suggesting that Taiwan does not do enough for its defense, and so should be abandoned. This remains to be seen.