Brian Hioeby Brian Hioe
語言:
English
Photo Credit: President.gov.ua/CC BY 4.0
AN EXCHANGE in which Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky was upbraided by US president Donald Trump and vice president JD Vance will likely be watched carefully in Taiwan. Zelensky was criticized for not being sufficiently thankful for US support and accused of starting the war.
Ukraine has long been looked at by Taiwan as offering lessons in the event of war with China. This is on a number of fronts. First, Taiwanese could readily see the commonalities between Russia’s claims of sovereignty over Ukraine and China’s claims over Taiwan, with Putin’s Russia claiming that there was no distinguishable Ukrainian culture or heritage. This is not unlike how the Chinese government claims that Taiwan is and has always been Chinese and that there is no such thing as a distinguishable Taiwanese identity and culture.
To this extent, many Taiwanese have found Ukraine’s resistance inspiring in the face of a much larger enemy. On the level of warfare, Taiwan saw lessons in terms of how Ukraine used asymmetric warfare tactics in fending off Russia, in mobilizing the population at large and using drones rather than conventional symmetric weapons platforms.
Yet the world’s support of Ukraine was also understood as showing that the international world might come to Taiwan’s defense primarily in terms of offering support from afar, including sending arms over, rather than directly coming to Ukraine’s defense. Particularly as Taiwan’s main security guarantor is the US, this was the case regarding the US’s support for Ukraine, in which support occurred at a distance in order to avoid escalation with Russia.
It was already known in Taiwan that Trump would demand a more extractive relationship from Taiwan. Trump had lashed out against Taiwan on occasions in the past for “stealing” the US semiconductor industry. Trump also accused Taiwan of being a freeloader on US munificence, suggesting that Taiwan should pay the US for its defense, and refusing to commit to defending Taiwan.
In response, Lai administration officials have usually sought to reassure, gently pushing back against Trump’s claims about Taiwan “stealing” the US semiconductor industry as incorrect while emphasizing the historic ties between the US and Taiwan. Nevertheless, it has been debated in Taiwan as to what the best means of keeping Trump happy would be.
Polling before the US presidential election showed that the public overwhelmingly supported Harris. Moves perceived as pro-Taiwan in the early stages of the first Trump administration, such as the Trump-Tsai phone call, initially led to the view that he would, in fact, be pro-Taiwan.
There were those who did not seem to register or refused to confront that Trump represented something qualitatively different than Republicans who opposed China on traditional grounds of anti-Communism. But even if uncritical Trump supporters continue to be loud online in Taiwan, such expectations have been tempered in past years among the general public, who have come to understand Trump’s instability and unreliability as a world leader.
The presence of members of the Trump administration, such as Ivan Kanapathy or Marco Rubio, has been seen as reassuring in that they are understood to be pro-Taiwan. But the undue influence of Elon Musk–who is perceived as pro-China in Taiwan given past statements by Musk directed at Taiwan and Hong Kong–proves concerning. Similarly, the presence of Elbridge Colby–who proposed bombing TSMC to keep it out of Chinese hands–too, is concerning.
What the exchange with Zelensky illustrates is that whatever Taiwan does to try and placate Trump and members of his administration, this may not be enough. Zelensky has, of course, thanked the US for its support on many occasions.
Moreover, the exchange illustrates Trump’s tendency to victim-blame, in that Trump and Vance had no compunctions about publicly bullying an individual whose country has been attacked for the last three years by Russia. Perhaps Trump’s worldview is simply one that only respects power. It is to be seen how Taiwan will navigate what is set to be a rocky four years under the Trump administration, then.