Brian Hioeby Brian Hioe
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Photo Credit: JW Hurter/WikiCommons/CC BY-SA 3.0
SOUTH AFRICA HAS resumed calls for Taiwan to move its representative office out of Pretoria, the South African capital.
Such calls originally began in October of last year, and were thought to be the result of strengthening ties between South Africa and China. This in itself is not surprising, with China and South Africa often framed alongside each other as part of the BRICS economic grouping. Specifically, Taiwan was requested to move its representative office out of Pretoria by the end of October.
Taiwan does not have official ties with South Africa, though it does have substantial business ties, and there are Taiwanese communities in South Africa. Taiwan maintained ties with South Africa even during the course of international condemnation because of South Africa’s apartheid policies.
Among the options then contemplated by the Taiwanese government were demanding that South Africa move its representative office out of Taipei. This was framed as a reciprocal move.
After negotiations between both sides, however, South Africa did not follow through on pushing Taiwan’s representative office out of Pretoria. Taiwan, too, backed away from plans to request South Africa move its representative office out of Taipei. At least one South African political party expressed support for Taiwan during this time.
Taiwan’s only formal diplomatic ally in Africa is Eswatini, whose government is authoritarian, in which freedom of political association is forbidden and presided over by one of the world’s last absolute monarchs. As such, given Taiwan’s limited foothold in Africa, South Africa pushing out Taiwan’s representative office is likely to be framed by the KMT as showing how the Lai administration is unable to conduct diplomacy in order to maintain Taiwan’s international standing, particularly regarding how to manage relations with China.
Indeed, the KMT has traditionally campaigned on the political claim that it is the only political party in Taiwan able to maintain stable cross-strait relations with China. To help the KMT maintain this political narrative, China refrained from poaching diplomatic allies of Taiwan when the Ma administration was in power, to signal its favoritism toward KMT governments.
Taiwanese president Lai Ching-te. Photo credit: Lai Ching-te/Facebook
China resumed poaching diplomatic allies of Taiwan once the Tsai administration took office and has continued with the Lai administration in power. Yet it is a newer move for China to try and push Taiwan’s representative offices that it maintains in lieu of official diplomatic relations outside of the capital of a country.
The timing of South Africa renewing its calls for Taiwan to move its representative office is notable, in that this takes place soon after the Trump administration assuming power. The move may be aimed at probing the response of the Trump administration or otherwise signaling that pressure on the US via Taiwan will continue.
Even if the US also does not recognize Taiwan diplomatically, the US passed legislation aimed at shoring up Taiwan’s remaining diplomatic allies in the form of the 2020 TAIPEI Act. Some of the voices that pushed for the TAIPEI Act have, too, been critical of South Africa.
This includes US Representatives such as Young Kim and Mark Green, as well as US Senator Ted Cruz. Such US elected officials sit on committees including the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Africa, House Committee on Homeland Security, and House Subcommittee on Asia, the Pacific, Central Asia, and Nonproliferation. Cruz has been especially vocal, stating that the move will impact tensions between the US and South Africa.
It is possible that South Africa is testing the red lines of the second Trump administration. At the same time, it is also possible that South Africa is acting at the behest of the Chinese government, with this move intended to strengthen relations between South Africa and China.
It is to be seen what responses the Lai administration will undertake. Either way, it is probable that the KMT will try to leverage on such moves for political ammunition, in order to build up its claims that it is the only political party in Taiwan able to maintain stable cross-strait relations and pacify China.