Brian Hioeby Brian Hioe
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Photo Credit: Steve Jurvetson/WikiCommons/CC BY 2.0
NEWS REPORTS EARLIER this month indicated that Elon Musk’s SpaceX had pressured Taiwanese suppliers to move operations out of Taiwan. This proves concerning for Taiwan, particularly given the significant role that SpaceX has in the contemporary space industry.
Specifically, SpaceX sought to pressure Taiwanese suppliers to move manufacturing out of Taiwan, citing the geopolitical risk to Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion. Reports indicate that at least one company relocated manufacturing to Vietnam.
The Taiwanese government has stated that it is aware of the situation. Nevertheless, the government sought to reassure, emphasizing that companies should not be concerned about short-term factors to the extent that they relocate manufacturing.
Taiwan is generally concerned about international perceptions of its geopolitical risk, such as that might discourage international companies from investing in Taiwan. This is especially the case regarding the semiconductor industry, with Taiwan maintaining a critical foothold in semiconductor manufacturing in such a manner that encourages other countries to defend Taiwan.
As such, the construction of semiconductor fabs outside of Taiwan has led to concerns that Taiwan will lose this critical bulwark that leads to other countries taking an interest in the defense of Taiwan. To this extent, tech giants such as Google setting up data centers or Nvidia establishing research centers in Taiwan has been seen as buoying Taiwan, in that these companies view it as worth the potential risk to invest in infrastructure in Taiwan.
Still, Musk’s political views are of concern to Taiwan. While close to Donald Trump, who recently won a second presidential term, Musk likely also hopes to establish positive ties with the Chinese government because of a desire for access to the lucrative Chinese market.
In a 2022 Financial Times interview, Musk stated his view that Taiwan should be made into a special administrative region of China, which would have more freedom than Hong Kong. According to Musk, though the proposal “probably won’t make everyone happy”, he thinks that “it’s possible, and I think probably, in fact, that they could have an arrangement that’s more lenient than Hong Kong.”
Indeed, Musk has allowed for his use of the Starlink satellite system in the Ukraine-Russia conflict. At the same time, Musk has also cut off the use of Starlink when used by Ukraine to counter-attack Russia.
A 2023 report by Bloomberg indicated that Taiwan had sought to make up for its current vulnerabilities in Internet infrastructure due to dependence on submarine cables with a deal with Starlink, but that the deal broke down due to Musk. This took place in a period of increased discussion of how submarine cables prove a vulnerability for Taiwan after Chinese vessels cut the two submarine cables for the outlying island of Matsu earlier that year, which could have been an accident, though for both cables to be cut is unusual. A total of fourteen submarine cables link Taiwan to the world.
As such, in June 2023, the Ministry of Digital Affairs announced that UK satellite company OneWeb would cover Taiwan by the end of 2023. Like Starlink, this also uses low-orbit satellites. But it may not be surprising that Taiwan decided to hedge bets and go with a company that was not Starlink.
It is to be seen if Musk will affect Taiwan’s geopolitical outlook under the Trump administration, with some expecting that he will take up a post in the Trump administration. This proves one of the many uncertainties about the upcoming administration.