Brian Hioeby Brian Hioe
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Photo Credit: Lai Ching-te/Facebook
PRESIDENT LAI CHING-TE indicated an openness to nuclear energy in an unusual set of remarks earlier this month. Lai stated that his administration did not rule out the use of advanced nuclear technology, but that this would only proceed on the basis of social consensus.
This is one of a number of occasions on which Lai has suggested an openness to nuclear energy. Previously, in July, when asked about the possibility of renewing the licenses for Taiwan’s current slate of nuclear reactors and extending their service life, Lai said that the possibility was open but that this depended on “more communication” between stakeholders.
This took place in the context of calls on Lai by business leaders to maintain the use of nuclear energy in Taiwan, when the DPP officially plans to phase out nuclear energy by 2025. The Lai administration contains senior officials both opposed to nuclear energy, such as vice premier Cheng Li-chiun, and in support of it, such as Pegatron founder and chair Tung Tzu-hsien. Nevertheless, Lai’s comments were quickly walked back by the Presidential Office, which reiterated that the Lai administration was still committed to phasing out nuclear energy.
In the course of election campaigning, Lai also suggested an openness to nuclear energy in some cases. When the KMT embraced Terry Gou’s proposal to build small-scale nuclear reactors across Taiwan, Lai responded by citing that the possibility of nuclear restarts in some circumstances was in the range of consideration.
It is possible that Lai has defense considerations in mind regarding nuclear energy. Namely, Taiwan would face energy shortages if cut off from oil and natural gas shipments in the event of an invasion or blockade. Although rarely discussed in public life, this is a consideration in the construction of liquified natural gas receiving stations such as led to a national referendum regarding plans for a liquified natural gas terminal off the coast of Datan in Taoyuan in 2021 which would have threatened a 7,600-year-old reef.
President Lai Ching-te. Photo credit: Lai Ching-te/Facebook
It could also be that Lai hopes to please business leaders by not leaning into an anti-nuclear stance. The Taiwanese government has an imperative to keep manufacturing in Taiwan for key industries, such as the semiconductor industry, or electronics manufacturing, rather than relocating to China or Southeast Asia. This is because one of the key reasons as to why western countries are invested in Taiwan’s defense is because of the reliance of their supply chains on Taiwanese semiconductors.
If Lai were to lean into a pro-nuclear stance, this would upset the DPP’s party base. The DPP and KMT have traded stances on many issues between when they were in and out of power, including support for the LNG terminal versus opposition to it, seeing as the KMT originally proposed the terminal and the DPP opposed it. Similarly, the DPP lifted long-standing barriers on imports of pork from the US despite concerns over the use of the growth hormone ractopamine, something that was originally proposed by the KMT during the Ma administration and which the DPP then opposed. The DPP did this with the aim of securing stronger trade relations with the US, which proved similar when it lifted barriers on food imports from areas of Japan affected by the Fukushima disaster, so as to strengthen trade ties with Japan. In particular, the DPP hopes that stronger economic ties with the US and Japan would increase their incentive to defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion.
By contrast, nuclear energy is an issue that the DPP and KMT have not switched positions on. Arguably, this has more to do with the differing orientations of the two parties toward national identity than anything else–the KMT advocates a return to nuclear energy with the claim that Taiwan’s economic heyday, when it was the sole governing party during the authoritarian period, took place as a result of the use of nuclear energy. By contrast, the DPP’s opposition to nuclear energy has to do with environmental concerns about the dangers to Taiwan’s environment in the event of an earthquake or other natural disaster, as dovetails with national identity.
Still, Lai may be playing a game of strategic ambiguity when it comes to his stance on nuclear energy, to keep big business, defense concerns, and the DPP’s party base alike happy. Or it is possible that Lai is simply compromising in a manner aimed at keeping all stakeholders happy–but as with the stumbles of the early Tsai administration, attempting to keep all stakeholders happy is likely to please nobody.