Brian Hioeby Brian Hioe
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Photo Credit: Gage Skidmore/Flickr/CC BY-SA 2.0
EARLIER THIS MONTH, with the approval of the US Democratic Party’s 2024 platform, the policy document included the “Six Assurances” to Taiwan for the first time.
It is usual for Taiwan to be included in the platforms of both the US Democratic and Republican parties. However, the 2020 Democratic Party platform only included reference to the Taiwan Relations Act and avoided discussing “One China Policy.” The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has thanked the Democratic Party for its platform.
Specifically, the Democratic Party platform referenced, “America’s commitment to peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait consistent with the U.S. One China Policy—guided by the Taiwan Relations Act, the three Joint Communiques, and the Six Assurances—in order to continue to ensure that there are no unilateral changes to the status quo from either side.”
The Six Assurances specifies the US stating that it would not set a date for ending arms sales between the US and Taiwan, nor that it would consult with China on arms sales. The US also stated that it would not mediate between Taiwan and China, change its position on Taiwan’s sovereignty, pressure Taiwan to negotiate with China, or change the Taiwan Relations Act.
By contrast, the US Republican Party did not mention Taiwan in its party platform. This is a conspicuous omission, particularly after comments by Republican Party candidate Donald Trump lashing out at Taiwan with accusations that Taiwan stole America’s semiconductor industry and calling on Taiwan to pay for America’s defense of it.
It is expected that Democratic Party candidate Kamala Harris will continue to maintain the Biden administration’s support of Taiwan. Yet the US may aim to avoid the reputation for gaffes that Biden acquired under Harris, seeing as Biden made statements sometimes read as expressing a US commitment to defend Taiwan on several occasions before this was walked back by the White House.
Former US president Donald Trump. Photo credit: Gage Skidmore/Flickr/CC BY-SA 2.0
By contrast, it is anyone’s guess as to what the Trump administration’s stance on Taiwan would be. The preceding Trump administration saw Trump embrace a transactional rhetoric, that traditional allies of the US should pay it for defense.
Either way, the Trump campaign has continued to frame itself as having a strong stance on China. This has included Trump’s running mate, JD Vance, attempting to attack Harris’ running mate, Tim Walz, as having illicit ties to China for formerly having lived there. This occurs despite Walz’s support of Tibet and Hong Kong, and criticism of the Tiananmen Square Massacre. Yet Trump has openly praised Chinese President Xi Jinping and referred to him as a friend in the past.
It is expected that the Lai administration will hedge bets, given that it is possible either Trump or Harris wins. One has seen, in fact, both the DPP and KMT try to present themselves as bipartisan in sending delegations to the Democratic and Republican National Conventions. To this extent, apart from ties with the Democratic Party, Taiwan continues to roll out the red carpet has-beens of the Trump administration, whether that be former National Security Advisor John Bolton, former Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley, or former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo–those these were individuals that later sought to challenge their former boss for the Republican presidential nomination.
There are some in Taiwan–usually of a pro-independence right political persuasion–who continue to cling to views uncritically supportive of the Trump administration, seeing him as harsh on China. At the same time, Harris is likely to be perceived as a steadier hand than Trump. Press coverage of Tim Walz’s nomination in Taiwan was also, on the whole, rather positive.
It is probable that while idealized views of Trump persisted in the years after the 2016 Trump-Tsai phone call, these views are no longer as widespread. This is likely the case in light of the Biden administration’s continued support for Taiwan, as well as that this support has been perceived as occurring with a steadier hand than Trump. Comments by Trump denigrating Taiwan’s size in comparison to China did not go unnoticed in Taiwan. Yet it is still to be seen how perceptions of the US presidential election are framed in Taiwan, with a bit more than two months before voting day.