Brian Hioeby Brian Hioe
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Photo Credit: Shufu Liu/Presidential Office/CC BY 2.0
THE POSSIBILITY OF Taiwan restoring diplomatic relations with Honduras has been floated after the idea was floated by former vice president, Salvador Nasralla, who is running as a candidate in the 2025 Honduran presidential elections.
Nasralla served as vice president from 2022 to 2024, before resigning, in the presidential administration of Xiomara Castro, Castro originally ran for office pledging to break ties with Taiwan, but initially backed away from this pledge when she won in November 2022. Castro responded to a tweet from then-president Tsai Ing-wen congratulating her on her election victory, and then-vice president William Lai was in attendance at Castro’s inauguration in January 2023, attending on Tsai’s behalf.
This changed in March 2023, when Castro finally moved on her campaign promise to break ties with Taiwan. This was in line with the political stances of Castro’s government. Her husband, former president Manuel Zelaya steered Honduras towards alignment with Hugo Chavez’s Venezuela during his tenure in office before his ouster in a 2009 military coup. As such, it is thought that Castro and Zelaya may be more sympathetic to China, in line with leftist political stances. Even during the period of time that Castro recognized Taiwan, Zelaya continued to call for a realignment toward China.
Likewise, views of Taiwan in Honduras may be colored by Taiwan’s support of previous Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernandez. Taiwan was quick to recognize Hernandez as president in 2017, in spite of an election widely viewed by international observers as having been stolen. Hernandez also visited Taiwan in 2021, shortly before the end of his term, likely to shore up support even if he claimed the purpose of his visit was to secure financing for development.
Salvador Nasralla meeting with Taiwanese diplomatic staff (left). Photo credit: 中華民國駐外單位
Nastalla has criticized Zelaya and Castro as compromising on Honduras’ sovereignty in the face of China, particularly regarding a free trade agreement that Castro aims to sign with China, citing the examples of failed promises by China in former allies of Taiwan that have since switched recognition to China as Costa Rica, Panama, and El Salvador. It is unclear if Nastalla may also be signaling what he hopes as to his future alignments vis-a-vis the US.
For its part, Taiwan has stated that it is open to the idea of reestablishing ties. This is not the only time that an opposition leader has floated the idea of reestablishing ties with Taiwan after they were broken either.
In 2021, protests broke out in the Solomon Islands against President Manasseh Sogavare, who was elected in 2019. The protests were sufficiently intense that a 36-hour lockdown was imposed in Honiara, the capital of the Solomon Islands, following an attempt by hundreds of demonstrators to occupy the legislature. A police station, among other buildings, was set on fire. Demonstrators reportedly numbered up to or around 1,000, with police using tear gas and rubber bullets on the crowd. Schools and businesses in Honiara were mostly closed, as protesters called for Sogavare to step down.
One of the factors driving the protests is the fact that Sogavare’s presidential administration switched recognition from Taiwan to China shortly after being elected. This was particularly so regarding the relationship between the island of Malaita and Taiwan. More broadly, Malaita has a history of calls for independence from the rest of the Solomon Islands, with Malaitan Premier Daniel Suidani having called for a referendum on the issue in September 2020. Many Malaitans were critical of the decision by the Sogavare government to break ties with Taiwan, with strong ties having developed between Malaitan communities and Taiwan in past years.
As Taiwan maintained ties with the opposition in the Solomon Islands in preceding years, China and the Sogavare government have sometimes accused Taiwan of undue influence. It is to be seen whether this may happen in Honduras as well.
Yet it would prove an interesting example if Taiwan reestablishes ties with Honduras after a Nasralla victory. Evidently, there are voices of discontent in other nations that have broken ties with Taiwan as well, and the idea could come up in other countries as well, if there were at least one case of this taking place.