Peiyi Yuby Peiyi Yu
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Photo Credit: Pamela Drew/Flickr/CC BY-NC 2.0 DEED
TAIWAN HAS DISTANCED itself from the Israel-Gaza conflict since the very beginning of the Gaza war. Namely, Taiwan’s callouts to Gaza are few and far between.
On its rare announcements, the Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs aimed to avoid politically sensitive terminologies such as “genocide,” “war crime,” and “the right to defend itself,” with calls for “cooperation” and “talks” based on no firm grounds regarding the conflict. Between the International Court of Justice view of Israel’s “plausible genocide” in Gaza, and the US’s reaffirmation of Israel’s “right to defend itself,” Taiwan toes a cautious line balancing its core value in human rights, and its key democratic ally. However, if the US couldn’t deter its own close ally from crossing the red line, can Taiwan trust the US to keep China from crossing its red line?
The months-long Qatar, Egypt, and US-led ceasefire negotiation should have ended on May 7 when Hamas one-sidedly accepted a ceasefire proposal. The brief, celebratory sentiment on the streets of Rafah and in the White House press room was put to a quick end the next day when Israel seized the Rafah crossing, and began to bombard Rafah. Israel’s increased aggression on Gaza’s last unmarred city, Rafah City, has triggered the White House to warn Israel not to mount a full-on invasion of Rafah proper.
“So [the Rafah operation] is not over your red line yet?” “Not yet, but we’ve held up shipment of [bombs],” answered the president of the US Joe Biden to a CNN reporter’s question on May 9th. The US‘s message to Israel has been ambiguous. On the one hand, the White House has reaffirmed Israel’s “right to defend itself” despite a UN resolution for a ceasefire. On the other hand, the President of the United States has announced that it would withdraw support if Israel attacks population centers in Rafah.
Since the ceasefire negotiations in Doha reached a stalemate after 7th of May, Israel has been advancing on the battle ground. Despite the US withholding an arms transfer, Israel’s operation around Rafah has induced a mass displacement of 800,000 refugees from Rafah to other equally unsafe areas in Gaza.
In recent years, the US’s strategic ambiguity towards the tension in the Taiwan Strait has led to conflicting messages. “Are you willing to get involved militarily to defend Taiwan?” “Yes, that’s a commitment we made,” affirms US president Joe Biden to a reporter in May of 2022. But minutes after, a White House press release read, “Our policy has not changed.”
According to the Taiwan Relations Act, the US only has a commitment to provide arms for Taiwan to defend itself.
“Would US forces defend Taiwan?” “Yes, if in fact there was an unprecedented attack,” again affirmed the US president to a 60 Minutes interview in September 2022. Yet this was quickly walked back. “The president was not announcing any change in our policy, nor has he made a decision to change our policy,” a White House spokesperson stated in October 2022.
Nonetheless, China clearly considers the US as its major military opponent, and has trained its military accordingly. In recent years, the People’s Liberation Army has strengthened its anti-access and area denial capability. China’s strategy is to block the US military from the region and isolate Taiwan from the outside world. According to Mark Cancian who co-authored a CSIS war game report about a war breaking out in the Taiwan Strait, China might launch a preemptive attack on the US military to maximize its chance in a successful invasion of Taiwan.
As Israel’s invasion of Rafah mounts, “the claim that people in Gaza can move to ‘safe’ or ‘humanitarian’ zones is false. Each time, it puts the lives of civilians at serious risk,” stated the Commissioner-General Philippe Lazzarini. Since the beginning of the Gaza invasion, Israel has cut off basic humanitarian supplies to Gaza such as water, food, medicine,and electricity. According to the US Agency for International Development, 600 trucks of humanitarian supplies are required each day to prevent a tenuous humanitarian situation. But only less than 100 trucks of humanitarian supplies are allowed into Gaza on average. According to the UN, Gaza is currently suffering from a “man-made” famine. Compounded with what the White House called an “indiscriminate bombing” on Gaza, the International Court of Justice ruled that Israel is “plausibly” committing a “genocide” regarding the people of Gaza.
A Chinese blockade around Taiwan is likely to cause widespread misery in Taiwan. China’s military exercises demonstrated its intention to blockade Taiwan in a 2022 exercise after the US House Speaker’s visit to Taiwan, and the recent exercise following Taiwan’s president Lai Ching-te’s inauguration. Taiwan’s Petroleum Administration Act only mandates the island to have a 90-days peacetime consumption of fuel reserve. According to a Council on Foreign Relations report, in a time of war, consumption is expected to be significantly higher.
On May 9th, Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced a humanitarian donation to Gaza, breaking its long silence on the Gaza war since November. The donation is symbolic. The aid roughly amounts to 15,000 USD, and, in all reality, is not likely to reach those in need in Gaza due to the ongoing humanitarian bottleneck. The announcement of the donation reads in part: “We are hoping to see some follow-up mediation and talks that will ultimately bring peace to that region.“ Ironically, the announcement came at a time when the US-led “mediation and talks” seem to have fallen off a cliff. Understandably, Taiwan does not have substantial leverage over Israel, Hamas, or Palestine to have a meaningful input on the war in Gaza. However, it remains to be observed if Taiwan’s authority could navigate a diplomatic landscape where its volume pales in comparison to China and the US in a time of crisis.